NBA Play-In Predictions 2024
- Rim Report
- Apr 15, 2024
- 6 min read
The NBA Playoffs are on the horizon following the conclusion of the regular season. However, before the playoff picture is complete, the Play-In Tournament, a crucial addition to the NBA calendar since its entire establishment in 2021, will determine the last two playoff spots in each conference here. Here's how it works: The 7-seed faces off against the 8-seed, with the winner securing the 7-seed. Similarly, the 9-seed battles the 10-seed, and the victor of this game plays the loser of the 7-seed game. The ultimate winner of this final game claims the 8 seed.
Western Conference 7-seed game: Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans | Pelicans win
From a regular-season standpoint, the Pelicans finished two games ahead of the Lakers, with a 49-33 record, compared to a 47-35 record. The Lakers were able to take care of business against the Pelicans, winning the season series 3-1. Although the Lakers have Lebron James and Anthony Davis, they have had more periods of struggle than the Pelicans. The Lakers picked it up later in the season after getting off to a slow start. At one point, the Lakers were below .500. Zion Williamson was able to stay relatively healthy this season for the Pelicans. As much talent as the Lakers have, the Pelicans have a homecourt advantage, and they are overall a younger team. Despite the matchup problems Anthony Davis may cause to Jonas Valanciunas, the homecourt advantage will overwhelm the Lakers, and the Pelicans will win a tight one. The Lakers would play the winner of the 9-seed game to determine if they can hold onto their playoff hopes. The Pelicans would face the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Western Conference 9-seed game: Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings | Kings win
Although the Kings finished 46-36, the Western Conference was a tight race. It's been a long and disappointing season for both teams. Both teams finished with the same record. However, the Kings won the season series, so they have a homecourt advantage. The Kings faced the Warriors last year in the Playoff, where the Warriors beat the Kings in 7 games. This season has been a down year for the Warriors. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins had down years, Chris Paul missed significant time, and a lack of surrounding talent for Stephen Curry. The Warriors haven't been the same team that they were last year. Their dynasty lasted long and was thought to be over a while ago. However, Klay Thompson returned from two surgeries, and the Warriors won the championship in 2022. The Warriors went on a winning streak this season but had a slow start. The Kings have looked like the better team this season. The Kings overall have more talent. Unlike the Warriors, the Kings have an elite number 2 option in Domantas Sabonis. De'Aaron Fox is not as good as Stephen Curry's, but the King's depth makes up for it. Despite missing Malik Monk, their top bench scorer, the Kings will pack the Warriors to Cancun and send Draymond Green to therapy.
Western Conference 8-seed game: Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers | Lakers win The Lakers and Kings should be an exciting matchup. The key to this game is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Anthony Davis will be overwhelming for the Kings. Davis is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and his presence in the paint is scary for other players. The Lakers are a more experienced team than the Kings. Although the Kings have good depth, it isn't easy to bet against Lebron James. Although the Lakers have had a disappointing overall season, they came to life later. Lebron James hasn't missed the Playoffs many times in his 21-season career. Lebron has only missed the Playoffs four times in 20 seasons. The Lakers have good depth pieces, along with Lebron. D'Angelo Russell is an X factor for the Lakers. If he's on like he has been recently, it will cause many problems. The Lakers may struggle to defend De'Aaron Fox, but the Kings have matchup difficulties with Anthony Davis. Although the Kings swept the season series, the Lakers are more experienced and have been in this situation more than the Kings. That said, the Lakers will move on to the first round to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round.
Eastern Conference 7-seed game: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers | 76ers win
The 76ers were the 3-seed in the Eastern Conference before Joel Embiid got injured. Embiid tore his meniscus and was forced to get surgery. Since then, the 76ers have been slowly declining. When Embiid returned on April 2, the 76ers were 39-35. Since his return, they have gone 7-0 and now stand at 47-35. Like the 76ers, the Heat have played great basketball down the stretch. The Heat went 7-3 in the final ten games and are finally starting to see results from their mid-season pickup, Terry Rozier. It's important to note that one of these Heat' losses came from the 76ers. The 76ers beat Miami 109-105 on April 4. Miami and Philadelphia went 2-2 against each other this season. One of those 76ers' wins came without Joel Embiid, which is notable because it shows that the 76ers aren't just a one-person show run by Embiid. If the Heat want to win this game, the deciding factor will be Bam Adebayo. Joel Embiid will get to the free-throw line. That's a fact. But for the Heat to come out of this game victorious, Adebayo needs to limit Embiid's trips to the line by playing defense with his feet and not his hands. With all this said, the 76ers will beat the Heat and move on to face the New York Knicks.
Eastern Conference 9-seed game: Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls | Hawks win
Both the Hawks and Bulls finished the season under .500. The Bulls finished seven games behind the Heat and the Hawks ten. Many fans think they do not deserve to compete in the Play-In Tournament because of how far back they are. Putting all the opinions aside, this is a good matchup. The X-factor in this game is going to be the Bulls supporting cast. The Bulls have a star, and that star is Demar DeRozan. DeRozan is averaging 24.0 points, 5.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds. The Bulls must expect the Hawks to send double teams at DeRozan throughout the game. This is precisely why players like Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, and Alex Caruso will likely be the keys to victory. When DeRozan is double-teamed, he will look to these guys to score. Coby White is his best option; he is a point guard who can also quickly create and facilitate his shot. White averages 19.1 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. This is where the Hawks come into play. They have two exceptional perimeter defenders who will try their hardest to put a stop to DeRozan and White. In every game, if the Hawks need two guys to shut down the other team on defense, they look to Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter. Most teams in the NBA have their lockdown perimeter defender; the Hawks have two. That is what makes them a bad matchup for Chicago. This isn't even the main concern for the Bulls; they also have to worry about Trae Young. Young is one of the best point guards in the NBA, averaging 25.7 points per game, 10.8 assists, and 2.8 rebounds. Young makes a massive impact on the game because of his shooting and playmaking ability, which will lead the Hawks to victory. Hawks will win and move on to face the Miami Heat in a matchup for the 8-seed.
Eastern Conference 10-seed game: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat | Heat win
The Miami Heat are the team you can always count on to put up a good fight. Although the Heat lost key Playoff performers such as Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, they added Terry Rozier mid-season. Rozier can be a streaky player sometimes; however, his presence at Point Guard makes up for those key losses. Jimmy Butler is a player you can count on to turn up in the postseason. In Jimmy Butler's career, he's averaged 21.3 points per game in the Playoffs. Bam Adebayo's paint presence scares away Atlanta's guards, Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. Adebayo creates problems for teams, forcing them to rely on their outside shoot; the Hawks have notable catch-and-shoot pl on their team, such as Bojan Bogdanovic. The Heat's gameplan will be around containing Trae Young. Jimmy Butler will likely be taking on that matchup. Throughout his career, Jimmy Butler has been outstanding on defense. The Hawks missed Trae Young for most of the year, which caused them problems, finishing 36-46. The Heat won the season series 3-1 against the Hawks. Although Atlanta had the injury bug, which caused some of their struggles, the Heat have looked like the better team overall. Miami's mentality has won them many Playoff games in recent years, even taking a trip to the NBA Finals last season, upsetting the Celtics. The Hawks made an Eastern Conference Finals run in 2021; however, since then, they haven't made it out of the first round. This pick seems obvious: the Miami Heat will advance to the first round.

